February 22, 2009
Handicapping the 5th Spot in the Rotation
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We haven’t been giving our World Champion Phillies enough love here at SportsOnBroad these days so I figured it was about time I stop watching NFL Network’s coverage of the Combine and talk a little about our Phills. The biggest question mark on the team heading into the upcoming 2009 season is who will get the 5th sport in the rotation. There’s 4 candidates for the job - Kyle Kendrick, Chan Ho Park, JA Happ, and Carlos Carrasco - and here’s my very unofficial odds for each of them locking down the spot.
- Kyle Kendrick - 3:2 - Rich Dubee recently said that the spot is Kendrick’s to lose, so he obviously needs to be looked at as the favorite coming into Spring Training. On the plus side he has 21 wins in his first two big league seasons, but on the down side, his ERA ballooned to 5.49 last year. Big league hitters figured Kendrick out by the second half of last season. Can he adjust and become as effective as he was in 2007 again?
- Chan Ho Park - 5:1 - When Park was signed by the Phillies in the off-season and was told he would have a chance to start I scratched my head. Park has a reputation for giving up the long ball and his best seasons have all come in pitcher friendly parks. CBP is not pitcher friendly and serves up almost as many home runs as Tony Luke’s cheesesteaks. If Kendrick isn’t able to lock down the spot many feel Park will likely start the season in the rotation. Personally, I just don’t see him being any more than a situational reliever in a park like CBP.
- JA Haap - 4:1 - Happ is the guy I would like to see start the season off in the 5th spot. He made his major league debut against the Mets last summer and in a big game against our hated rival, he pitched pretty well. He was very solid throughout the rest of the second half and with some good work this spring, I think he could be a pretty good 5th starter. It’s going to take a very good performance in Clearwater for Happ to pass Kendrick and Park, but while Dubee can’t get passed Kendrick’s 21 wins, I can’t get passed Happ’s 3.69 ERA and 7.39 K/9.
- Carlos Carrasco - 10:1 - Carrasco is the real wild card in the bunch. Of these four, he has the most potential and the biggest upside. He is also the least experienced and probably isn’t quite ready for the big leagues just yet. It would take a monster spring for Carrasco to start the season in the rotation. By August I could easily see him starting for the Phills should Kendrick, Park, and Happ not be able to combine to hold down the 5th spot. He is a big part of the future for the Phills, but the future isn’t now just yet.
What says you SOB Nation? Who do you think will open the season as the #5 starting pitcher for the World Champs?
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Alex
February 27th, 2009
1:52 pm
No offense to Kendrick… but he wins with smoke and mirrors. I cringe with every pitch he throws. I appreciate what he did in 2007 for us, but last year he showed us what his real stuff was like during the second half. I am happy that there is so much competition this spring training for the 5th spot. I think it will be a really close battle between JA Happ and Carrasco. Both are young and want to prove themselves. I say they both perform well this spring, one lands the 5th spot, and the other gets called up mid-way through the year as one of our pitchers goes on the DL (as usual).