Impact of Elton Brand’s Season Ending Surgery

One Man's Loss...

As you all know, Elton Brand’s season ended 2/5/09, despite the 76ers releasing MRI results that very day suggesting Brand’s shoulder was “improving”.

His shoulder dislocation requires surgery, and although he will be able to move around by the end of the season, the surgically repaired shoulder will not be able to handle the physical contact needed for Brand to put up the 20 / 10 that the Sixers signed him to contribute.

So where does this leave the 76ers?  Believe it or not, I actually think that Brand’s injury may be a blessing in disguise.  Not only that, but I still have faith that the signing can help the Sixers in the long run.  How?  Here’s how.

2008 - 2009 Season -

• Let’s face it, the’08 - ‘09 Sixers weren’t going to make a dent in the Eastern Conference playoffs with Elton Brand, and they won’t without him.  As it stands now we hold the 7th seed, which would line us up to play Cleveland and LeBron James in round 1.  Best case scenario would be the Sixers attack the 2nd half of the season and move up to the to the 4 seed, giving us first round home-court advantage and a shot to get to the second round.  Even still, there is no way we can take a seven game series from Boston, Cleveland or Orlando.
• In 29 games, brand averaged 13.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.6 blocks per game.  Clearly below the expectation that his contract created.  However, he was working his way in and put up 27 points and 9 rebounds v. Washington in the game before he was injured.  Brand wasn’t playing as consistently as I would have liked, and building chemistry will be in the focus of the upcoming offseason.  Well, that and working his cardio instead of banging on that shoulder.  We will need him to get out and run if he will ever be a factor in Philadelphia.

Is Another Man's Gain

Growth of Young Sixers -

• One man’s loss is another’s gain.  In Brand’s absence, young guns Thaddius Young, Marreese Speights, and Samuel Dalembert (young mentally) will continue to be relied upon heavily down low, and Lou Williams will be counted on to put up points off the bench.
• In the case of Young and Speights, these two are looking to be vital cogs in the future of the Sixers, and their playtime will increase as a direct result of the Brand injury.  Their growth as players this year will dramatically impact where we stand in the coming years, and may even make players like Brand, Dalembert and even Andre Iguodola expendable.
• When it comes to Dalembert, it’s time to show and prove.  Six years deep in his career, and he makes more rookie mistakes than the rookies.  I would love to see him build a trade market for himself in the second half of this season with strong play.

2010 Free Agency -

• The all important offseason, in which the NBA is going to get flipped on it’s head.  LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudamire, Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Redd, Joe Johnson and  more are set to hit the free agent market.  Will the Sixers be able to get a piece of the action considering Brand’s recent mega-contract?
• The answer is yes.  Andre Miller’s $10 million contract is set to end this year, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be back.  As it currently stands, the only Sixers set to make more than $10 million in any single year moving forward are Brand, Iggy and Dalembert.
• Finding a way to clear Dalembert’s contract off the books before the 2010 offseason is the true key to signing a real difference maker in that offseason.  If Ed Stephanski could pull this off, the Sixers could potentially sign a max-contract player to throw into the starting lineup with Brand, Iggy, Young and Speights.

The Sixers have done a good job building a strong young nucleus of players.  Guys like Iggy (25), Young (20), anad Speights (21) will only get better with the experience they gain from this year, one that no one expects them to go anywhere anyway.  Brand will come back determined to prove himself next year, and he will have to in order to win over the Philly fans who were starting to boo him prior to the injury.

In terms of the future, the Dalembert contract ($11.4 mil in 2009 and $12.2 mil in 2010) is weighing the Sixers down harder than Brand’s ($14.9 mil in 2009 and $16.0 mil in 2010).  Brand still has a lot to give to this team and can help us grow into a championship team.  But he sure isn’t going to do it alone.  Or this year.